Arms Race in Sudan May Indicate Return to Civil War

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Sun, 12 Oct 2008 08:12:39 +0000
Adam Gonn - The Media Line Editor

Darfur, Sudan (TML) - A "silent arms race" between the two Sudanese coalition partners may point to a possible return to the civil war that ended in 2005, the London-based daily A-Sharq Al-Awsat reports. Three scenarios may reignite the civil war between the central government in Khartoum and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM), military and diplomatic sources in Sudan told the paper.

These include the controversial issues of the elections, the referendum and control over the oil-rich region of Abyei. Speculation regarding the possible eruption of civil war was heightened after the BBC reported that a hijacked Ukrainian ship carrying 33 T72 battle tanks was destined for South Sudan's SPLM. One of the paper's sources added this was the fourth shipment of weapons to South Sudan from the Ukraine and other parties.

Despite official denials from both sides, the paper's sources report that the Sudanese Army and the armed forces of the SPLM have begun accumulating large quantities of weapons, fearing the eruption of violence in the next few years. The 2005 peace agreement between Khartoum and South Sudan stated that neither side would be allowed to renew its weapons arsenal without the approval of the joint Defense Council. However, experts have determined that this clause has not been observed by either side.

The government of South Sudan, led by the SPLM, last May rejected Sudanese President 'Umar Al-Bashir's proposal to form a joint administration over the disputed area of Abyei. The proposal followed clashes between the Sudanese Army and the armed forces of the SPLM in Abyei. Dozens of people were killed during the clashes, hundreds more were wounded and almost the entire city's population of 90,000 fled its ruins.

The SPLM and the central government in Khartoum signed a Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, ending 20 years of civil war. The CPA, however, failed to conclude the issue of three disputed oil-rich areas, including Abyei, located between the north and the south.

Talks between top officials on both sides, and mediation efforts by the United States' Special Envoy to Sudan, Richard Williamson, have failed to materialize. "Abyei remains a powder keg that could implode and destroy all that had been achieved in the 2005 peace agreement," Williamson said in June after his meeting with SPLM leader Salva Kiir.